The State of Travel After COVID-19
The coronavirus situation changes daily, but there are moments when a post-COVID-19 future begins to take shape amidst the turmoil. Although we may be ready to imagine what it would be like to socialize as usual or t board a plane for a much-needed vacation, that doesn't mean that the post-COVID world will be the same. Travel will be different than what we've grown accustomed to, and the changes that the travel industry has already begun to implement may be here to stay.
Current State
Before we can speculate on the future, let us first examine our current situation. Political leaders have felt pressure to restart the economy. Consequently, most states have developed phased reentry plans, and are monitoring infection rates to identify the resurgence of the virus quickly. Some public recreational spaces have opened with limitations, and companies in the hospitality and tourism sector have developed rigorous cleaning routines.
Despite some progress in implementing social distancing and upgraded cleaning protocols, the US still has much to do to control the virus and minimize the scope of its impact on our day to day routine. The EU recently announced that its member states would not be admitting US citizens, for the time being, a decision the EU will review every two weeks.
Those of us fortunate enough to be working from home during quarantine look forward to returning to a state of normalcy.
And "normalcy" includes the desire to travel.
Not immediately, and not the same way - but wanderlust is returning.
Google Trends Search Term Data
To illustrate this returning demand, we've consulted Google Trends, a tool that shows the popularity of a search term relative to total search volume in a given time frame. For ease of comparison, Google converts search volume into an index ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being the highest possible interest for a given term. You can compare trends over time or analyze the popularity of search terms to one another. Below, we've done both.
Current State
Before we can speculate on the future, let us first examine our current situation. Political leaders have felt pressure to restart the economy. Consequently, most states have developed phased reentry plans, and are monitoring infection rates to identify the resurgence of the virus quickly. Some public recreational spaces have opened with limitations, and companies in the hospitality and tourism sector have developed rigorous cleaning routines.
Despite some progress in implementing social distancing and upgraded cleaning protocols, the US still has much to do to control the virus and minimize the scope of its impact on our day to day routine. The EU recently announced that its member states would not be admitting US citizens, for the time being, a decision the EU will review every two weeks.
Those of us fortunate enough to be working from home during quarantine look forward to returning to a state of normalcy.
And "normalcy" includes the desire to travel.
Not immediately, and not the same way - but wanderlust is returning.
Google Trends Search Term Data
To illustrate this returning demand, we've consulted Google Trends, a tool that shows the popularity of a search term relative to total search volume in a given time frame. For ease of comparison, Google converts search volume into an index ranging from 0 to 100, with 100 being the highest possible interest for a given term. You can compare trends over time or analyze the popularity of search terms to one another. Below, we've done both.
Figure 1 indicates that as searches for the term "COVID" started spiking in early March, searches for the word "vacation" sank. However, as the frequency of COVID searches declined from its apex in early April, interest in "vacation" gained strength.
In Figure 2, we compare the term “vacation” year over year. When looking at this view, it is even more evident that this search has begun to rebound. Interest year over year is still down, but the blue trend line representing 2020 is closing the gap.
In Figure 2, we compare the term “vacation” year over year. When looking at this view, it is even more evident that this search has begun to rebound. Interest year over year is still down, but the blue trend line representing 2020 is closing the gap.
At the time of writing, searches for COVID have again trended up. Searches for vacation, while declining, are similar to 2019. (See Figure 2.) People aren't as ready to travel as in 2019, but interest does seem to have rebounded from its low in April of this year.
What Will Travel Look Like After COVID-19?
Just because interest in travel is rebounding does not mean that people want to travel in the same way that they could pre COVID. For consumers to leave their homes' safety, they must be confident that the places they choose to visit are sufficiently low risk.
Rebuilding Consumer Trust
For businesses in the hospitality and tourism industry, this means rebuilding consumer trust through increased sanitization procedures and a re-evaluation of many points of contact (both literally and figuratively). A cleaning routine going over and above the already-heightened-protocol has become a badge of honor. Airlines tout their new physical distancing measures, and some airports have engaged sanitizing robots that clean surfaces 24/7. Cruise lines may decide to up the ante of their onboard medical facilities to entice travelers to book for 2021 and beyond.
Access to Facilities
These more rigorous sanitation protocols may limit the amount of time that travelers will be able to access public spaces in airports and hotels, and modes of transportation may be limited. However, as these entities adjust to the next normal, and find ways of expanding their services while keeping sanitation standards high, it's hoped that these limitations will be temporary.
The Role of Technology
As businesses strive to keep their facilities COVID-free, touchless technology will become critical. Airports have been testing biometrics for years, and COVID-19 has accelerated this process. Rather than exchanging your passport or other identifying information with an officer, soon, a scan of your face or irises may get you through Customs.
Biometric technology may be helpful to multiple segments of the travel industry. For example, an image of a face could be sent in advance to a hotel or cruise line as a method to verify identity. Biometric technology has considerable downsides, but due to COVID and the need for "touchless" interactions, it may be implemented rapidly.
Where and How Will People Travel?
As a spokesperson for Tripadvisor.com put it, “Tourism recovery typically begins locally.” Before travelers decide to go on international trips, they are more likely to choose domestic destinations. Before that, they might take staycations or only venture a few hours from home by car.
In keeping with that logic, we will likely see an increase in domestic travel and international travel closer to home. Think road trips rather than flights, Canada and Mexico over Thailand and Greece. And to meet renewed interest in domestic tourism, tour operators have created products that package US destinations - -to destinations including the very popular and those more off the beaten path.
The Importance of Travel Advisors
Travel advisors are invaluable, as anyone stranded abroad with COVID-19 related travel disruptions learned. From rescheduling flights to navigating the fine print of cancellation policies to advocating for their clients when hold times were days long, travel advisors were there for clients and non-clients alike during and after the peak of the chaos. Consequently, even the most intrepid DIY-ers may think twice before booking travel without the guidance of an expert, or at minimum, a travel insurance policy.
When Will Things Go Back to Normal?
At this point, there is no clear path back to "normalcy" in the travel industry. Some believe that air travel will resume normal operations by summer 2021; others think that it may be much sooner, and point to declining mortality rates, vaccine trials, and reopening borders. No one can be certain when we will confidently declare that the pandemic is finished, but we can find hope in examples like New Zealand and Vietnam, and we can continue to do our part to keep ourselves and those around us healthy.
Written by Sachiko Higaki
What Will Travel Look Like After COVID-19?
Just because interest in travel is rebounding does not mean that people want to travel in the same way that they could pre COVID. For consumers to leave their homes' safety, they must be confident that the places they choose to visit are sufficiently low risk.
Rebuilding Consumer Trust
For businesses in the hospitality and tourism industry, this means rebuilding consumer trust through increased sanitization procedures and a re-evaluation of many points of contact (both literally and figuratively). A cleaning routine going over and above the already-heightened-protocol has become a badge of honor. Airlines tout their new physical distancing measures, and some airports have engaged sanitizing robots that clean surfaces 24/7. Cruise lines may decide to up the ante of their onboard medical facilities to entice travelers to book for 2021 and beyond.
Access to Facilities
These more rigorous sanitation protocols may limit the amount of time that travelers will be able to access public spaces in airports and hotels, and modes of transportation may be limited. However, as these entities adjust to the next normal, and find ways of expanding their services while keeping sanitation standards high, it's hoped that these limitations will be temporary.
The Role of Technology
As businesses strive to keep their facilities COVID-free, touchless technology will become critical. Airports have been testing biometrics for years, and COVID-19 has accelerated this process. Rather than exchanging your passport or other identifying information with an officer, soon, a scan of your face or irises may get you through Customs.
Biometric technology may be helpful to multiple segments of the travel industry. For example, an image of a face could be sent in advance to a hotel or cruise line as a method to verify identity. Biometric technology has considerable downsides, but due to COVID and the need for "touchless" interactions, it may be implemented rapidly.
Where and How Will People Travel?
As a spokesperson for Tripadvisor.com put it, “Tourism recovery typically begins locally.” Before travelers decide to go on international trips, they are more likely to choose domestic destinations. Before that, they might take staycations or only venture a few hours from home by car.
In keeping with that logic, we will likely see an increase in domestic travel and international travel closer to home. Think road trips rather than flights, Canada and Mexico over Thailand and Greece. And to meet renewed interest in domestic tourism, tour operators have created products that package US destinations - -to destinations including the very popular and those more off the beaten path.
The Importance of Travel Advisors
Travel advisors are invaluable, as anyone stranded abroad with COVID-19 related travel disruptions learned. From rescheduling flights to navigating the fine print of cancellation policies to advocating for their clients when hold times were days long, travel advisors were there for clients and non-clients alike during and after the peak of the chaos. Consequently, even the most intrepid DIY-ers may think twice before booking travel without the guidance of an expert, or at minimum, a travel insurance policy.
When Will Things Go Back to Normal?
At this point, there is no clear path back to "normalcy" in the travel industry. Some believe that air travel will resume normal operations by summer 2021; others think that it may be much sooner, and point to declining mortality rates, vaccine trials, and reopening borders. No one can be certain when we will confidently declare that the pandemic is finished, but we can find hope in examples like New Zealand and Vietnam, and we can continue to do our part to keep ourselves and those around us healthy.
Written by Sachiko Higaki